Analyzing the Impact of Potential Medicaid Cuts: A Toolkit for States

Update as of June 2, 2025: For a revised analysis of the bill passed by the House through the reconciliation process, please refer to this version of the toolkit. 

Congress is considering significant cuts to Medicaid as part of the legislative process—called “budget reconciliation”—being used to advance President Trump’s key legislative priorities. To support states in informing and validating their own fiscal and program impact estimates of federal policy changes, Manatt Health has developed, with support and input from State Health and Value Strategies, a new toolkit providing national and state-by-state data on the potential impact of key cuts under consideration in Congress. The toolkit is designed to help state officials prepare or review their own estimates and to offer estimates to states not undertaking their own analyses. The toolkit has been updated as of April 24 to include estimates of state-by-state impacts of making work requirements a condition of Medicaid eligibility.

The toolkit consists of a written issue brief  and an accompanying Excel workbook (see button below to download) with national and state-by-state impacts as well as detail on the methodology and descriptions of the “pre-legislative” proposals.

For a summary of the toolkit, please see Analyzing the Impact of Potential Medicaid Cuts: Overview of a Toolkit for States.

Download