Jan, 27, 2026

Early ACA Enrollment Data: Fewer Enrollees and Leaner Coverage

Elizabeth Lukanen and Emily Zylla, SHADAC

Preliminary data from the 2026 Affordable Care Act (ACA) open enrollment period paint a concerning picture of the individual market. Following significant policy shifts and changes in federal financial support, early metrics suggest two emerging trends: overall enrollment is lagging behind previous years, and consumers are increasingly trading comprehensive coverage for less generous coverage plans with lower premiums. 

National and State ACA Enrollment Snapshots

Preliminary plan selection data released by CMS shows that, at the national level, enrollment is currently down by approximately 800,000 from the same time last year. Data published by State-Based Marketplaces (SBMs) offer an even more granular, real-time look at how consumers are reacting to the new landscape. For example, these data have shown that many consumers are enrolling in less generous coverage than in prior years, trading lower premiums for higher cost sharing.

Reports from California, Maine, Minnesota, and New Jersey reveal a migration sway from Gold or Silver plans toward Bronze plans, which typically carry higher deductibles and out-of-pocket costs.

Examining these five states and their reported enrollment data more closely provides a better understanding of recent changes in the Marketplace:

  • California: Covered California’s ongoing comparison of 2025 and 2026 open enrollment data shows movement away from Silver plans among new enrollees. For the 2026 plan year, more than one-third of new consumers are enrolling in Bronze plans compared with only about one in five at the same point last year. This shift is largely driven by a sharp decline in new enrollees choosing Silver plans (falling from 69% in 2025 to 51% in 2026).
  • Maine: CoverME.gov reported that more consumers are selecting plans with higher deductibles and that enrollment in Bronze plans increased by more than 10 percentage points, representing almost 60% of plan selections.
  • Maryland: In a press release from the Maryland Health Benefit Exchange, officials reported that more than 5,700 consumer who had a Gold plan last year selected a Bronze plan this year.
  • Minnesota: Preliminary trend analysis from MNsure indicates that among active enrollees, nearly half (46%) are changing their metal level (e.g., shifting from a Silver to Bronze plan) instead of maintaining the same plan from the previous year. Of those active enrollees who are changing their plan type, 37% are “buying down” to a less generous metal level, while only 9% are “buying up” to more generous coverage.
  • New Jersey: Get Covered New Jersey has explicitly linked plan selection changes to reductions in federal financial support. The state reports a migration toward lower metal levels and plans with more affordable monthly premiums. Specifically, they report that among enrollees who actively shopped, Silver plan selections fell from 83% in plan year 2025 to 72% in plan year 2026 during the first six weeks of open enrollment. Conversely, Bronze selections rose from 16% to 27% between plan year 2025 and 2026.

Looking Ahead

Taken together, these early reports suggest that fewer people may be enrolling in ACA coverage for 2026 and that many who do enroll may be paying the same, or even more, for coverage that is less generous than what they selected previously. And, while lower metal tier plans can be an appropriate choice for some consumers, widespread movement toward Bronze plans also increases the risk of higher out-of-pocket costs and underinsurance, particularly for people with ongoing or unexpected healthcare needs.

It is important to emphasize that these data are preliminary. In addition to the financial risks enrollees face, states are also concerned about the potential for “non‑effectuation”—when individuals select a plan but do not pay the first premium required to activate coverage. This raises the possibility that final 2026 enrollment numbers could fall even further once unpaid plans are terminated. In the coming months, state and federal marketplaces will release final, effectuated enrollment figures. Those data will be essential for understanding the full scope of enrollment changes and the durability of current plan‑selection trends.

Still, as shown in data from these five states, early indications of both fewer overall ACA enrollees and more consumers shifting from higher‑ to lower‑tier plans appear consistent across multiple states. This pattern warrants close attention as policymakers assess the effects of recent policy changes on their insurance coverage landscape.